Estimation, unlike history, is a part of mathematics, and it is an important one, if you are relying on a calculator, where a slip of the finger can move the decimal point. Estimation is also useful for scientists when they don’t have complete and reliable data.
For example, until about 1600, most military firepower, aside from the odd cannon, used to batter walls from a distance, came from bows and arrows. In reality, up until the mid-1800s, it would have made more sense to keep on using archers, because a skilled bowman could fire more shots faster, doing greater harm at the end of their range, than a soldier could do, equipped with a rifle or a musket.
The key point is
that an archer had to be skilled, and those who used longbows had to be strong.
On the other hand, the skill and strength needed to fire a crossbow were low,
like those needed to discharge a firearm. Crossbows fired fewer shots per minute than
longbows, but they were more damaging than muskets.
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The Aiming of the Shrew. |
A good archer
could fire off ten arrows a minute, each of them leaving the bow at 60 m/s
(more than 200 km/h), and arriving a few seconds later, still carrying three
quarters of that speed. All of these are estimates, of course, but we know that
in 1590, Sir Roger Williams complained that only 10% of archers could do harm
“12 or 14 score off”, which is at 240 to 280 yards, or 220 to 260 metres. Even
at Waterloo in 1815, muskets had a range of less than 100 metres.
Much of the armour
used at Agincourt was thin metal, perhaps 1 mm thick, and tests have shown that
arrows would go through 1 mm steel. Some armour was up to 4 mm thick, and that
would have withstood arrows, but not crossbow bolts.
The crossbow has
the advantage that it can be loaded in advance, and used when necessary. More
importantly, it fires a heavy bolt with real killing power, and no real
training is needed to use one, because the operation is intuitive: point,
steady the bow and shoot. After a ranging shot or two, most operators can be
accurate enough to be dangerous.
The crossbow bolt
would have been slower at first, but later ones are credited with ranges of a
quarter of a mile (400 metres) and more. Allowing for air resistance, the bolts
must have reached at least 75 m/s, close to 300 km/h. The rate of fire of the
crossbow was comparable with that of a trained musket user, with less chance of
a misfire, making the changeover to firearms (when it happened) a bit odd,
because arrows, even crossbow ones, were still better. Perhaps the people in charge believed Zeno’s Paradox?
That same argument
can also be applied with appropriate changes to an arrow approaching a target,
but Zeno also said that if we divide the time into tiny enough segments, in
each of them, the arrow is not moving. Either way, it will never reach the
target. Remember the bumblebee!
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